Zenyatta versus five in Vanity

Horseracing Betting Lines

06/10/2010 - Inglewood, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Leading Horse of the Year candidate Zenyatta will go after a third straight win in Sunday's $250,000 Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park. The undefeated mare has five challengers in the 1 1/8-mile race on Hollywood's synthetic track.

Owned by Jerry and Ann Moss, Zenyatta has a record-tying 16 race win streak and can break the tie she has with legendary horses Citation and Cigar. Her career earnings currently stand at more than $5.9 million.

Zenyatta, trained by John Shirreffs, will start from post five with reigning Belmont Stakes winning jockey Mike Smith riding. The six-year-old will carry the same 129 pounds she toted when she won last year's Vanity.

"The weight was pretty much what we were expecting," said Shirreffs, who is seeking his record fifth win in the Vanity. "We're just trying to focus on the Vanity and not on all of her accomplishments.

"Mike Smith is the good guy in all of this. We were really happy celebrating his victory in the Belmont Stakes (with 13-1 longshot Drosselmeyer). Mike is a rider and a horseman, so he is invaluable."

Zenyatta began her 2010 campaign by winning the Santa Margarita Handicap at Santa Anita Park and followed with a 4 1/4-length win as the 1-20 favorite in Oaklawn Park's Apple Blossom Handicap.

The last two years Zenyatta has been voted champion older female and for 2009 finished second for Horse of the Year to Rachel Alexandra. She won the 2008 Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic and last year became the first female to capture the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Shirreffs will also send out Zardana, owned by Arnold Zetcher. The six-year- old mare will be ridden by Victor Espinoza from post three.

Zardana is best known for having defeated Rachel Alexandra in the first running of the New Orleans Ladies Classic in March at the Fair Grounds. Rachel will start in Saturday's Fleur de Lis at Churchill Downs.

In her last start Zardana was a disappointing fifth in the La Troienne at Churchill Downs on April 30. That race was won by Unrivaled Belle with Rachel Alexandra second. Zardana has won eight of 20 lifetime starts for $438,276.

Here is the complete field for the 69th Vanity in post position order: Miss Silver Brook, Joe Talamo; St Trinians, Martin Garcia; Zardana, Victor Espinoza; Will O Way, Tyler Baze; Zenyatta, Mike Smith and Cherryblossommiss, Rafael Bejarano.

Post-time for the Vanity will be 7:40 p.m. (et).

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.